Pondering Trump

 I had a bit of an epiphany today.

By now most of us are aware that recent revelations by journalist Bob Woodward showed that President Donald Trump was privately telling him one set of things about COVID-19 back in January and February this year, but publicly telling the American people quite another.

Because the things Trump told Woodward more closely resembleds what we have consistently heard from mainstream science, most of us have automatically assumed that this set of statements was what Trump "knew", and that therefore he had been untruthful to the American people. Add to this Trump's own "admission" to Woodward that he liked "playing it down", and it does seem all the more logical to conclude that Trump was lying to the American people. Still, there was a little kernel of discomfort I have always had churning inside me with this intuitive inference - a logical disconnect if you will - and today I finally realized why.

Listen thoroughly to the conversations and you will realize that way back on February 7 2020, when much was yet unknown about the virus, Trump was definitively telling Woodward that it was airborne. "It goes through air Bob.. You just breathe the air and that's how it's passed..." If mainstream science had not yet established this back in February, where was Trump getting his information? In fact, even to this day, I don't think it has been established that COVID-19 is airborne in the traditional sense of the word. Technically, "airborne" means it can hang and travel through air for long distances and long periods of time. While not a doctor, I believe this has not been concluded regarding COVID; rather, what has been concluded is that it can behave as if it is airborne when "aerosolized" indoors.  Granted, back in February, Trump might have heard speculation from his medical advisers that the virus may be airborne, but certainly not with the degree of certainty with which he communicated this to Woodward. This leads me to conclude that perhaps we should not reach the instinctive conclusion that Trump knew the science and lied to the American public; because it is equally likely, in fact more likely, that he did not know the science and was lying to Bob Woodward.

Now, why would he do that? Well, Woodward was writing a book about him, and if that book were to frame the virus as this potent, invisible, irresistible, unstoppable foe, imagine how heroic Trump would look if and when, as he truly believed, the virus just disappeared (aided by warm weather and a few million doses of hydroxychloroquine).

So in my opinion, it actually makes a lot of sense that Trump was lying less to the American people than he was to Bob Woodward, with his goal being to provide a preferred historical narrative regarding the health crisis to be delivered by Woodward's book.

And that, is actually more troubling than the realization that the POTUS was lying to the American public.

If Trump did indeed lie to the American people, I maintain that it certainly wouldn't be the first time an American President has done so. Arguably, it is sometimes a necessary element of leadership. But what is truly worrisome is having a leader who buries his head in the sand, believing simply what he prefers to believe, either unwilling or incapable of processing new information and assessing scientific and empirical evidence.

Such a leader, if he were to come into the belief, either out of preference or convenience, that the proper way to navigate a minefield is to close one's eyes and walk confidently through it, would in all sincerity lead his followers through a minefield this way, totally oblivious to the resulting destruction and carnage. And that, is truly frightening.

The idea that the commander-in-chief of the most powerful nation on earth has a firm grasp on the science, but chooses to lie to his people, even with the knowledge of resulting collateral damage, because of some higher plan or vision, is far less terrifying to me than the realization that what we see is truly all that we are getting. It is infinitely more horrific to me to realize that this commander-in-chief will really willfully disregard scientific evidence because hydroxychloroquine is such a convenient answer to the problem he is tasked to solved; that his level of intelligence finds the idea of  injecting disinfectant into the human body a promising and plausible alternative.

I would really rather learn that Donald J. Trump lies all the time, because what is truly scary is that he isn't lying.

And yet, if we look at his history, how he, for instance, destroyed the United States Football League while still insisting that he was the best thing that had ever happened to it, how he went into Atlantic City and arguably left a path of destruction in his wake; and well, I can't help but reach the conclusion that a stronger case can be made for the latter: Donald J. Trump really does believe most of the things he tells us.

Except things are so much different now, he is no longer leaving his distinctive indelible mark on a football league or even a city, he is leaving it on a large, influential country, and thus the global village to which it belongs.

None of us will remain unaffected.  

My Shopee Mysteries

I "discovered" Shopee during this pandemic. In the early days of the lockdown I was in search of essential supplies and thus went on Shopee aside from Lazada. I say "discovered" because I had heard of the platform before (who hasn't) but had never gotten around to actually using it, until the desperate search for supplies in the early days of ECQ forced my hand. I had used Lazada before and also used it during the lockdown, but found myself relying quite a bit more on Shopee. My experience with the platform has been satisfying and I must say, unexpectedly fulfilling.

There were, however, some things I did find confusing about the app (since resolved) and I thought I'd share my discoveries and realizations here so that others can, perhaps, benefit from them.

 Mystery # 1: The product does not support the selected shipping option. Sometimes when checking out, you might encounter the error "the product does not support the selected shipping option". This can prove particularly confusing because you weren't asked to select a shipping option and have no way to do so, so you will find yourself questioning why they are telling you that the selected shipping option isn't supported when they didn't even have you select one. To make a long story short, this error shows up when Shopee cannot deliver to your address via its usual delivery/courier partners. Some sellers may have an option "seller's own shipping" activated and you can choose that. This would mean that the seller might have its own in-house delivery or its own delivery partner, in which case you would pay for the product on the Shopee platform and chat with the seller to figure out the logistics of how to have the product delivered to you. My very first Shopee purchase was made under such circumstances. I bought three 6L containers of drinking water on the app, paid for the water on the app, and then chatted with the seller regarding delivery. He arranged for a rider to deliver, and I paid the delivery fee, in cash, to the rider. In short, when you encounter this error, it means Shopee cannot deliver to your address via its usual means, and you should chat with the seller to explore possible delivery alternatives.

Mystery #2: Free shipping and/or shipping discount that isn't given to you. Many times when shopping you will see something like "P50 off shipping with min order of P199." but seem to receive no shipping discount upon checkout. Sometimes you will even see "P50 off shipping with no minimum" or something like that, but seem to receive no discount. This is because the discount is given only if you have the right voucher. Shopee, as a part of its promotional efforts, gives out vouchers that give buyers free shipping or shipping discounts. I have posted below images of two such vouchers that I have received and successfully used:

 If you'll notice, the two particular vouchers I posted above are not applicable to all sellers on the Shopee platform but only to "Free Shipping Special Shops". How then would you know if the product you are interested in is being sold by one of these special shops? You would know because the product page would have the "P50 off shipping with... something" statement described in the paragraphs above. That statement marks, or indicates, that the product you are viewing is eligible for a Special Shop Free Shipping Voucher. Some might find this just a wee bit misleading, but well, the way I have come to see it, it is what it is. True, it would perhaps be clearer if the product pages instead say something like "Eligible for Special Shop Free Shipping Voucher." instead of a seemingly more definitive "P50 off shipping..." but at least I now know exactly how to understand the app and maximize my use of it. Note that there are also more special vouchers that get you free shipping for all shops, but keep in mind that if the voucher you have covers only "special shops", then to apply it to a purchase you will need to find a product that has been marked as being eligible.

Mystery #3: The mystery of the disappearing shop voucher.Shops or sellers within the Shopee platform also give out their own discount vouchers, and one of the the most frustrating experiences I encountered was when the shop voucher I received had been successfully applied (as shown on the left side below, P25 discount applied, bringing the price of a P110 item down to P85) only to have it disappear upon trying to checkout (as shown on the right below, price back to P110.00).  




After being unable to understand this behavior on the app I was very curious and waited through a queue 407 long to finally reach a live agent on the Shopee help chatline. The gentleman I reached provided excellent service, really took the time to understand the situation, but found himself as stumped as I was. After a while we left it be.

I got obsessive of course, and finally was able to figure it out. It turns out my default address was un-deliverable, and so the app removed the shop discount, and its behavior was such that even after I picked an address from my list of delivery addresses that was deliverable, it could no longer return the removed shop voucher. There was an easy fix to this of course - I changed my default delivery address to one that I knew was deliverable, and wa-la! Discount applied.

Aside from the store voucher I also found two more Shopee vouchers, bringing my total to three as pictured, which could be used concurrently with the shop voucher, before finally finalizing my purchase.

 I ended up getting these three mini-figures for the grand total of P196.00, shipping included. And while I admit it may seem a bit unbecoming for a 50 year old man, I found the process strangely fulfilling. 👴😁

Did Crude Oil Really Just Turn Negative?

Chart from forbes,com

Actually no, not really..

What did go below zero was the price of an expiring futures contract for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil.

So what is a futures contract? I think it is best not to delve into that in too much detail for now because it's probably too much to chew on for a single blog post. Since what we are more interested in is why its price went all the way to negative, perhaps it is best to just focus on characteristics and features of a futures contract and what this means for its price.

Perhaps the most important thing we need to know about a futures contract for now is that it is a financial instrument that, for the most part, reproduces the financial consequences of owning the underlying asset, which is to say that to own a crude oil futures contract gives one the risks and rewards of actually owning crude oil. For the most part.

What happened last April 20 was actually a "squeeze" on one particular crude oil futures contract, the May 2020 WTI crude oil contract. A squeeze is a concept that should be familiar to all of us - it is the reason why a bottle of water usually costs so much inside amusement parks, because the seller knows we absolutely must buy it, and he knows he is the only source. It works in both directions. When the buyer of a used car, for example, knows that the seller absolutely needs to sell (perhaps because he desperately needs the cash), he will usually give a very low offer. "Babaratin", in the vernacular. Call it human nature or greed, whatever it is, it is usually assumed to be an instinctive and natural tendency.

Now let's introduce you to some features of a futures contract that came into play last April 20:

A futures contract has an expiry date. Upon expiry, the holder/buyer of a crude oil futures contract must accept delivery of the actual crude oil. The seller has the obligation to deliver. It is actually this mutual obligation to deal the underlying commodity in its physical form that ties, or tethers, the price movement of the futures contract with the price movement of the actual commodity. If that last sentence is a bit difficult to visualize then its okay, what's important to note and remember is the fact that as a particular futures contract nears expiration, the buyer in that contract has two options: one, he can wait for expiry and take delivery of the oil, or two, if he does not actually want the oil, he should "trade out" of the contract (i.e. sell it in the futures market) while it isn't yet expired.

When one party holds a lot of open contracts near expiry, and it is well known that he does not have the ability to take delivery of physical oil, then he is in a particularly vulnerable position, because the other market players know that his only real option is to trade out of his positions before expiry. Aware of this urgency, the other market players can now squeeze him. Pwede na syang baratin.

Apparently, it's no big secret that last April 20, such a market participant did exist. Since I have no personal knowledge regarding the matter I will not talk about the identity of this participant, except to say that this participant owned a lot of open contracts, and was a purely financial player (i.e. did not have the competence to take delivery of physical oil, which must be delivered in a only a certain form, to a specific number of accredited storage facilities in the US) And so, the squeeze was on.

Knowing that this participant absolutely had to trade out of his contracts, other knowledgeable market players bid only very low prices, knowing that no matter how low or even ridiculous your bid, a trader who is under severe time pressure, and therefore urgency, and even desperation, to trade, will still need to hit your bid. Last April 20 the squeeze was so successful that the price actually turned negative - this meant that the seller was actually paying the buyer to take the contract off his hands - which actually makes sense given the scenario we just described.

So what happened last April 20 was actually not oil prices going negative, but the price of the expiring oil futures contract turning negative, due to what is probably one of the most successful squeezes of all time.

Now, the really interesting lesson in all of this is why this particular squeeze was so particularly successful. There are expiries of crude futures monthly, and surely, this is not the first time a market player had to trade out of a long position near expiry. So, why this time, did prices fall off a cliff and go underwater? Why not all the other times?

The answer does indeed lie in the extraordinary conditions the world finds itself in because of COVID-19. With more than half the world population locked down inside their homes and businesses closed, demand for crude oil has gone down a lot, warehouses are full, and therefore there isn't much demand left for physical crude oil. In more normal times, with normal, healthy demand for physical crude, a market player looking for buyers of futures contracts at just 20% lower than the last traded prices would have found so many buyers from participants who could just hold the contracts to expiration and take delivery of oil bought at 20% lower than market prices. Last April 20 those participants were taken out of play, or neutralized, because their storage capacity was already full. The market player who had a bunch of contracts to unload thus found himself at the mercy of much fewer remaining buyers.

This does not mean that the price of crude oil itself has turned negative. If crude oil really had a negative price. One could drive a truck up to a crude oil storage facility and gladly been given crude oil for free. The owner of the oil would be eager to give it away for free, since a zero price is better than having to pay you to drive away with it. This was, I believe, certainly not the case last April 20. I don't know that for sure, but I seriously doubt it.

Another way to think of the situation is this - under normal circumstances, the price of the futures contract is indeed very much a representation of the price of the physical oil. To emphasize in the clearest terms - a  buyer of physical oil can wait until a futures contract nears expiry, buy the futures contract, and receive oil tomorrow or at most, a few days later. So he would have gotten a free lunch if the price in the futures contracts were cheaper than the price in the physicals, and the laws of financial physics preclude such free lunches. So prices in both markets are thus effectively tied to each other. But when this link between the physical world and the financial world has been broken (e.g. There is no appetite for new transactions of physical oil because the storage tanks are bursting), then what keeps the prices in the two worlds in lock-step with each other has effectively been broken, and thus the price in each of the two worlds become free of each other.

On April 20, the price of the futures contract effectively lost its connection to the price of physical oil, and thereby took on a life of its own. With a sharp imbalance in supply in demand, or perhaps more accurately, with a sharp imbalance in the urgency of the supply and the urgency of the demand, prices took a wild and perhaps unprecedented turn. 

        

"View in Your Space" Not Working on Your Android?

This is not a primer or How-To about Google 3D Animals. There are a lot of excellent articles on the web for that. As the title hopes to convey, and the reason I think you have found your way here here, it is a post meant to help those who want to get a tiger into their bedrooms using their Android phone, can see the tiger in 3D, but cannot see that tantalizing but elusive “view in your space” button. Your tiger is in 3D, it moves around, you can see it from the top, from the bottom, from the side… Hell it even growls, but you can get no further.

Sound about right? And you're starting to get the feeling that the Gadget Gods are conspiring to make you feel bad? Because you keep reading, and hearing, that there's a "view in your space" button just below the tiger, and yet, time and time again, the picture below is what you see?

Well, hopefully, this post can help provide, if not resolution, then at least some clarity.

First and foremost, and maybe you don’t want to hear this, you need a supported phone. If you have a very old phone, well, chances are it’s not supported, and when you google “tiger” you will not even be able to see “view in 3D” button. If you realize that you’re in this group of people, find comfort in the knowledge that it is at least a better place to be than the next group of people: those with relatively new, but unsupported, phones. I myself use a Huawei Nova 5T, and it is not supported. I can see the “view in 3D” button, I can even actually see the tiger in 3D, but that is as far as I can get; and believe me it’s a cruel place to be in. At least the first group of people have the luxury of certainty. The people in my group don’t. We seem just a step away, some undiscovered tweak away from the promised land. But we never seem to get there. I spent hours trying to get it to work, but eventually failed; and worse, up to this moment I am still not entirely sure that it can’t work, and there is cruelty in that uncertainty.

So before anything else, check to see if you have a supported phone. A very good resource can be found here. Or, a more direct way of knowing whether or not your Android phone is supported is to go into the Play Store and search for “Google Play Services for AR”. If your phone isn’t supported, chances are you cannot even find it. Or you might find it, with an accompanying message that it cannot be installed on your device. Now, those of you who are pretty tech-savvy might be thinking that you’ll just go to a site like APKMirror, download this “Google Play Services for AR” (hereafter to be referred to as “GPSoAR”) and sideload it onto your phone. You can certainly try, and I suspect that it might actually work on some devices, but on my Nova 5T it did not. It actually installed fine, but any attempt by the phone to use it would end in a crash.

If you find GPSoAR on the Play Store with buttons to either “open” or “update” or “uninstall” then you’re in luck. That means it’s already on your phone, as it should be on a supported phone. However, if you see the “update” button that means there is already a newer version available and you should update the app. This is not negotiable, update if the option is available. No need to open, that is done automatically when the right time comes.

Next, check your Android version, it should be 7.0 or higher. If you find that GPSoAR is already on your phone in the previous step, then I see no reason how your version of Android can be lower than 7, but check anyway, and run system update if for some reason, it isn’t.

After going through these two steps, then you have determined if your phone is capable, but even if it is, you might still be unable to see the “view in your space” button, and that means there is more work to be done.

Step 3: Go into the Play Store and look for both the Google app and the Chrome app. These should already be on any Android device, but you need to update these to the latest versions. So, just like you did for GPSoAR, look for these two apps in the Play Store and see if the “update” button shows up on either. If yes, you know what to do.

Step 4: Go into settings, look for the two apps listed in step 3, and check their permissions. Both must have permission to use your camera.

Step 5: Lastly, still in settings for the two same apps, go into storage and clear the cache for both.

You are likely thinking that steps 3 and 5 are frivolous and probably unnecessary. You might well be correct about step 5, but I cannot overemphasize the importance of step 3.

After you have done all these, try again to see if you can now see the “view in your space” button.

You're welcome.